It is not just the week before Christmas that sees a frenzy of e-commerce in Australia any more. From the October sales on through to late November and the December shopping period, demand will build and in some cases persist into January. The savvy retailer does not merely put in an order for more stock; he knows when his customers are browsing and making comparisons, and when they are buying, returning a gift or wanting their delivery.
I have been there as well. I am Isabella Marlowe and I have left a present to the eleventh hour, put my faith in a delivery estimate that was perhaps too rosy and then stared at the tracking page as though it were in arrears to me. That little bit of panic is indicative of the market as a whole. What the customer is after is value and certainty and convenience. As for the retailer, he has to have his stock and answers in hand so the rush does not make of his inbox a bushfire.
Australian Shopping: What is Different?
There used to be one big December rush for Christmas but the trend in Australia is now towards a succession of promotional windows. You will find shoppers doing their research in October, buying in the course of Black Friday Australia, adding to the cart during Cyber Monday and getting their practical gifts done in early December. These are timing influences on retail patterns.
While this extended e-commerce peak season affords the retailer greater scope to make a conversion, it is also a source of operational strain. An early promotion will pull demand forward and if inventory planning is poor it will show. And for all the length of the calendar, the customer has not become any more patient.
Pre-Christmas Demand
The October sales draw in those with expensive items in mind before the household budget gets any tighter, whether it be furniture, electronics or children’s gifts, as well as deal hunters and planners.
Then comes late November and the urgency is palpable. Black Friday and Cyber Weekend are about comparison but also instil a fear of missing out; a discount that looks like it will not last will turn a single item into a bigger order.
One can look to the retail trade data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for a view of monthly turnover and where the industry is heading. But national figures only give context. Put them next to your own website and marketplace data and you will see what is happening in your category.
The Pull of Late November
For a good many online retailers in Australia, late November is the principal peak. There is ample time for a delivery before Christmas and the promotions are strong. The customer can get a gift in the bag and distribute the cost over a few pay cycles without having to be part of the parcel scramble at the end.
Retailers would be foolish to think the timing is lenient. Something that was slow going in October can be gone in a weekend; buy in too heavily and you are left with a product as flat as a pancake once the promotion is over.
How Promotions Affect the Customer
Black Friday is no longer just a matter of discounts in the eyes of the Australian shopper, it is a buying period. They will read the reviews, see what the other retailers are doing and check the fine print on returns and delivery before they are committed. If the dates are in doubt, a discount is not enough to close the sale.
And with Cyber Weekend you have people who are not in the Christmas spirit at all, perhaps putting in an order for themselves or replacing something in the house. It is worth separating that kind of general demand from gift shopping since their behaviour when it comes to returns and delivery will differ.
Do not be among those who think the day with the most traffic is going to be the day the warehouse is at its busiest. Orders come in a flood but it may be later, when the courier is collecting and you are reconciling the marketplace and running payment checks, that the work peaks.
An Explanation of the Retail Calendar in Australia
Having a retail calendar in place is the way to align your marketing and delivery with your stock. It avoids the error of seeing each sale as a standalone affair when the customer is on a buying journey that encompasses the entire season.
What follows are some useful planning windows, not hard and fast rules for the nation. The exact timing will be dictated by the product, the price and how you deliver.
| Period | Customer Behaviour | Retailer Priority |
|---|---|---|
| October Sales | The customer is in the mood for some research, planned household outlays and early buying. | For the retailer it is an opportunity to put offers to the test, see how deep the stock runs and put better product information on display. |
| Late November | Promotional buying and a good deal of comparison will be in evidence. | Traffic has to be monitored and courier collections readied while availability is safeguarded. |
| Early December | There is an urgency to gift shopping now. | Best sellers must be protected, the checkout made as simple as possible and delivery cut-offs put before the customer. |
| Mid-December | Certainty and fulfilment close at hand are what the customer wants. | Put forward alternatives that are suitable and give delivery estimates that can be believed. |
| January Sales | With self-purchase and replacement items being bought alongside returns on gifts. | The focus is on holding on to new customers, dealing with those returns and moving any seasonal stock. |
October: Building The Pipeline
One can inspect abandoned carts, search demand and email engagement in October; it is the time for it. In the relative quiet of the month a retailer might check that shipping details are there to be seen at checkout, or put in some time photographing giftable bundles and testing product pages.
Suppliers are worth talking to as well. Find out if there are production delays, what the minimum order is and when replenishment can realistically be expected. A supplier who says he has stock “before Christmas” has not been very forthcoming. The question is whether it will be in hand by the time the promotional window is shut.
December Rewards Clarity
December shopping is less forgiving because customers are buying against a deadline. They want to know whether an item is in stock, when it will leave the warehouse and whether it can arrive before a particular date.
If a product cannot arrive in time, say so plainly and offer a workable alternative. Digital gift cards, local pickup, express delivery and downloadable products can all serve customers who have left things late. There is no shame in admitting that a parcel travelling across the country is not going to teleport itself under the tree.
Black Friday And Click Frenzy
Events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday put all eyes on them and shape demand accordingly. Some customers will put off a purchase for a known sale, have their wish lists ready and sign up to emails.
This does engender a useful sense of urgency but the result can be sudden spikes in the volume of parcels, support calls, payments and website visitors. More than just a discount code is required, the whole of the customer journey needs to be in place.
Managing The Promotional Window
Put your service promises, stock limits and products in order ahead of a big sale and have a plan for when something sells out. An honest out-of-stock notice or a waitlist is preferable to taking on orders you cannot honour.
Take a look at your discount rules too. There is an appeal to a percentage off but it may leave out already reduced goods, bundles or delivery fees. Customers are quick to spot such things, especially in a comparison of online marketplaces, Amazon, eBay and the department stores.
An event-led promotion from Click Frenzy Australia will put a lot of traffic your way even with little brand recognition, though the shopper at an event is apt to be more price-sensitive and less of a loyalist. Get the go-ahead for some follow-up but do not count on a bargain hunter making a habit of it unless the service is there.
Omnichannel Fulfilment
A customer will not separate his channels. He could come across a product in a social post, make a comparison on a marketplace, put in an appearance at a department store and end up ordering on your site. This is omnichannel shopping and having accurate stock is of more consequence than a well done campaign.
While marketplaces open up new business, the one channel’s delivery and fee structure and return process may not be the same as another’s. A slow updating stock file invites overselling on the marketplaces and the website when you can least afford it.
Make It One Journey
Be consistent in the way you present dimensions, product names, return conditions and delivery times. Staff should be privy to the same order status as the customer. If one system is saying “packed” and another “awaiting stock”, no amount of talk about software integration will win the customer over.
Physical premises allow for local pickup to take the strain off couriers but it has to be properly set up with its own collection instructions, parking and id requirements, as well as cut-off times. The convenience is only theoretical if the customer has to make a trip across town to queue for twenty minutes.
Sales Are Dictated By Budgets And Timing
E-commerce seasonal demand is heavily driven by the household budget. An order may be broken into smaller pieces or a non-essential left until January, while a discount brings things forward.
It is easy to be misled by sales figures. A robust November could simply be December demand in advance. What counts is the overall seasonal picture: revenue, margin, acquisition cost and return rates.
Expectation Versus Reality
You might think a discount is good for profit but in fact it can eat into your margin, draw in the sort of customer who will be back with a return after Christmas and add to your support workload.
It is an expectation that the customer’s sole concern is to find the lowest price. In fact a good many shoppers are prepared to put up with a fair delivery charge if it means they can count on a dependable date of arrival, straightforward tracking and a return procedure that makes sense.
One might think January is a quiet month but sales tell a different story. There is plenty of demand for self-purchase, gift exchanges and size alterations, not to mention customers cashing in gift cards. The nature of the product mix may be different but there is no shortage of work.
Stock And Delivery: Get Ahead Of It
Any e-commerce operation should be making holiday preparations well in advance of the first big promotion. The question to ask is not how much one can sell, but how much can be sold, packed, dispatched, supported and returned without overreaching on what we can deliver.
I have found when ordering gifts online that the shops I trust most are not invariably the cheapest. They are the ones that will tell you your delivery zone, put their stock status on display and do not leave me to run after them for answers. It is a salutary reminder that customer service is integral to fulfilment, not some adornment.
A Peak Readiness Checklist
- Make sure you know your supplier lead times, minimums and have backup products in place.
- Run a test on stock synchronisation between the website and any marketplaces.
- Be realistic with courier cut-offs whether the destination is metropolitan or remote.
- See to the packaging, the printers, warehouse space, labels and collection schedules.
- Put your refund, exchange and delivery terms out there for all to see before a promotion gets under way.
- Have some standard replies at the ready for the odd delayed or damaged parcel.
Dealing With Australia
The country is vast and the conditions for delivery are not uniform. You are on very different ground with a parcel to the Pilbara or Top End than one going from Melbourne to Geelong. Then there is the prospect of cyclone warnings in the wet season up north, or bushfire and flood related road closures in summer that can put a spanner in the works for a courier network with little notice.
Do not put forward a single national delivery date as retailers; the reality is dictated by the postcode and the route. Give a range and be open about exclusions. An update when things change is preferable to a tracking link that has gone dead, even if the customer has a word to say about it.
Be careful too with cost. Express options, surcharges for rural areas or oversized items and return postage will alter the final figure. Lay these out before payment is taken and be explicit on who is footing the bill for a change of mind. A discount can be negated by an unwelcome charge at the checkout.
For The Retailer With A Day To Spare
Concentrate on what is visible to the customer and where failures are most labour intensive. Take the ten best sellers and make sure the stock is right. Have a look at the post-purchase journey and set clear return and contact details next to the point of sale. Do away with any vague delivery promises by postcode and put the checkout through its paces on a mobile with a proper payment path. Draft some sensible responses for when deliveries are late or stock runs out.
- Check stock accuracy for the ten products most likely to sell.
- Review delivery cut-offs by postcode and remove vague promises.
- Place return, exchange and contact information beside the buying decision.
- Test checkout on a mobile device using a real payment path.
- Write clear replies for delayed delivery, stock shortages and damaged parcels.
This is for a retailer that can measure results and has order visibility. If the warehouse capacity is a mystery or stock systems cannot be relied upon, it is not the time to put on a major show. A more modest campaign is the prudent commercial move.
Some Questions
What is the biggest peak?
Late November is usually when Australian retailers see the brunt of it with Black Friday and Cyber Weekend, though the precise timing will depend on the category and strategy. December is still key for those in a hurry for a present and January has its own demands.
Is October the time to discount?
For high-consideration items and the early planner, yes. But test it. You may be robbing Peter to pay Paul if you pull demand forward. Look at the season as a whole rather than a solitary day.
Cyber Monday?
In Australia it is part of the Cyber Weekend but do not expect it to be an event in itself. Let the offer and the experience speak for it.
How soon must stock be in?
Early enough to check quality, allocate and pack. Allow for transport hiccups and do not put your faith in a supplier’s promise made on the cusp of Christmas.
What does the shopper want?
Price is one thing but so is certainty and a returns process that is not as rough as guts. A retailer who is clear on the process will get the better of a cheaper rival with a vague delivery record.
Put The Calendar To Work
Treat the holiday period as one season from the October prep through to the January follow-up. Use your own history and the national data, keep an eye on the margin and plan the whole of fulfilment and service.
There is no need for the customer to have a retail calendar on the fridge but the retailer should have one. Do it properly and the season is less of a mad dash down the Stuart Highway and more like a journey with sufficient fuel.
